Green and growing

My story about being a Green politician in Canada, and why it was the best thing I ever did.

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

The 2007 Green Challenge - Majority Government

At the left is my projection for the next federal election, a Green majority government with 37% of the vote.

In the London North Centre by-election, we discovered that in the final days of the campaign, we experienced a tremendous surge in support, probably something in the range of 10 percentage points. In total, we increased the Green vote from 5.5% to 25.8%, an increase of 20%. The first half of the campaign was almost completely hidden by the municipal election that was happening at the same time. Those of us on the ground on that campaign knew that we could have squeezed another 5% to 10% if we had had another 10 days in the campaign.

This time, we are more prepared. This time, we have more people working on the campaign. This time we will have better national media coverage. This time, Canadians will know that we are contenders. The Green Party is up to 13% in the national polls, tied for third place. Two parties down, and two to go.

Here is my challenge to the rest of the country: only one voter in four needs to join us to form a majority government. At 13% + 25% = 38% we would have a very commanding 170 seats.

I do not extend this challenge lightly. In my riding in 2006, the Conservatives won with 46%. Here in SW Ontario, we are polling at 15%. After one in four, I will have 40% of the vote, they will have less and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex will be Green. I challenge myself and I challenge every person in Canada to find a couple of other people to support the Green Party. Then ask them to find a couple more.

The Green Party cannot make this happen by itself. However, the voters can make it happen in the blink of an eye.

Show your children that you care about their future. Take back your government.

Please, consider being a community leader, one of the heroes, who will free Canadians from the seesaw of broken promises. If you only vote once in your life, do it now and help paint Canada Green.



At 10:54 AM, Blogger Jim Johnston said...

An anonymous poster reminded me about this prediction, and I must humbly accept that I was wrong. When I did this, it was based on the idea that 1 in 4 voters would be motivated to switch Green. I see now that our electoral system has a lot more inertia than I previously realized.

I still use this graph for inspiration, and that was really my intention in creating the graph and posting it. I still think it will happen, but I will refrain from making any predictions about timing.

There is a comparison that can be made between the crisis of climate change and the abolition of slavery. It took a long time (see Preston Manning's article at to affect that change, even though it now seem obvious to us. They used the same fear-based arguments then (it will damage the economy, etc.) that we hear now.

I remain confident that the 1 in 4 will join with us. I have seen it happen in London North Centre, Bruce Grey Owen Sound, and now in Central Nova.


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